Method

One schedule, built the same way for everyone. Every entity in the stack is treated as a dated schedule of cash commitments against dated cash sources. Debt, leases, take-or-pay purchase obligations, guarantees and vendor credit are commitments with dates; operating cash flow, contracted receipts, refinancing and sponsor support are the sources. The model is that schedule, built identically for nine entities from the registers, with two things attached to every commitment: what secures it, and who holds the other side.

Three layers. Filings and exhibits are stored as filed and read in full; each is reduced to a checked digest of quoted, page-stamped facts; the registers hold one row per fact, and each row carries its basis — document when a filed page stands behind it, statement or reported when only a secondary source does, sought-not-found when the filing was checked and the item is not there. Measures are computed from the rows, never typed. A row without a source page is not a fact.

What is measured.

Obligations. Recorded debt; lease liabilities commenced, on the reported basis and on the filed undiscounted table; leases signed but not yet commenced; purchase obligations classed as financing-linked take-or-pay, essential capacity, or other; guarantees and residual-value support at their undiscounted maximum; exposure to unconsolidated vehicles at maximum loss; vendor financing extended or received, by status; customer prepayments; positions in other members of the stack. The headline is a triple — recorded, committed, contingent — never one number, and the status of every commitment is shown: in force, signed but not yet effective, memorandum, or announced.
Service capacity. Fixed charges for the next twelve months against operating cash flow; the forward funding gap by quarter; the financing posture of the stack as a whole, on two published academic bases.
Collateral. For secured compute debt: loan-to-value on two published residual curves, a market curve and a stress curve, the note choosing neither; tenor of the loan against tenor of the contracted offtake; offtake coverage; and the facility’s monitoring provisions recorded as facts — reporting cadence, whether a backup operator exists, whether a device-level registry exists, whether any third party verifies the collateral, what was redacted, which schedules were omitted.
Holders. The holder class of each instrument where a filing names it, the European exposure as a bracket from official aggregates, and the unidentified share published as such.
Interconnection. The flows between members of the stack, gross and netted under a published rule; dependence on the two largest model builders; correlated exposure by holder class.
Sensitivities. The same four for every entity — an offtake haircut, the residual curve one band lower, twelve months without refinancing, a uniform four-year useful life with each filer’s own life as the baseline — published as ranges, with the assumptions version.

Conventions, published. A single convention discount rate with a stated band; the two residual curves; the classification rule for purchase obligations; the netting rule for circular flows; uniform treatment of fiscal-year filers by period end. Each is an assumption in a versioned file, applied to everyone alike, and the departures from the agencies’ and supervisors’ own conventions are stated where they occur. The literature and standards the model rests on are set out in the methodology note that accompanies every edition.

The honesty layer. Every measure carries its disclosed share — the fraction of its inputs with a filed page behind them — the as-at date, the assumptions version, and the count of gap rows feeding it. A measure resting on less than half document basis is printed in grey. The register of what was sought and not found is published in full with every edition, with the reason each item is not public and what would close it.

What this is not. No letter grades, no bands per issuer, no probability of default, no recommendations. Thinking on Credit is accounting and cash-flow arithmetic on disclosed commitments.